Keeping 1.5 degrees alive? Subak’s take on COP26

With the imperative task of “keeping 1.5 degrees alive” at the forefront, it’s fair to say there was a lot riding on Glasgow’s COP26. This year’s COP marked five years since the Paris Agreement, so it was particularly important as countries were due to submit their updated nationally determined contributions in order to align with a 1.5 degree target. The question on everyone’s mind, then, as the dust begins to settle on negotiations: “Was COP26 a success?” We put together a few of our thoughts across various focus areas, as well as gathering responses from Subak’s Cohort Zero community.

So, what did it achieve? Analysis by the IEA shows that if COP26 pledges, on top of all previous commitments, are met in full and on time, they would be enough to limit the rise in global temperatures to 1.8°C by the end of the century. Yet, even with new commitments, we still fall well short of what is needed to keep to 1.5°C of warming, with the impact of this additional warming on the climate very alarming. Different analysis by CarbonBrief finds current policies will lead to a best-estimate of around 2.6°C by the end of the century (with an uncertainty range of around 2°C-3.6°C). The need for accountability on implementation of current pledges and higher ambition going forward is clear. 

Pioneering nonprofit climate action, the Subak community was actively involved in various aspects of COP26. Our call to COP26 delegates, as part of a collaborative letter alongside partners including WWF, Forum For The Future, and Futerra, asked delegates to rapidly accelerate change - rather than just talk about it - for the future of humanity. Check out the impactful billboards below. 

Source: REUTERS/Yves Herman.

Our members were also engaged at COP26 in many ways: from New AutoMotive and Ember’s billboards around Glasgow, to Open Climate Fix speaking at the National Grid stand. Climate Policy Radar also presented their prototype at the UN Global Innovation Hub, providing us with more detail below:

“Climate Policy Radar spent a week at COP26, which was a great opportunity to present our brand new prototype to our stakeholders and to take part in some really interesting discussions about data-driven solutions to the climate crisis. The negotiations themselves were obviously a mixed bag, and outcomes on issues like coal and loss and damage left a fair amount to be desired. What's clear is that any progress from here will depend on solid policy decision-making - which is why we were so pleased to get such an enthusiastic response when we shared our prototype!”

Open data on the agenda

Covid-19 has shown us a lot, but particularly the importance of collaborative and evidence-based decision-making, underpinned by reliable and good quality data. Indeed, the World Economic Forum recently outlined that global challenges such as Covid-19 and climate change highlight how now, more than ever, is the time to promote open data. Moreover, they highlight how the pandemic has accentuated the fact that global challenges require global solutions. 

At Subak, we also believe that organisations fighting climate change should work together to create a coherent base of data, tools and practice that allow us to fight more effectively. We’re turning words into action through our Data Cooperative, allowing Subak members, fellows and other climate change organisations to support stronger climate insights, identify climate risks and opportunities, and to measure climate impact. In our recent blog, our Head of Data, Dan Travers, wrote about the importance of open data and collaboration being critical to rapid climate action. 

Indeed, with one of the COP26 pillars being collaboration, open data is definitely starting to be widely recognised as an essential tool for tackling climate change. Matt Gray, co-CEO of TransitionZero, found data transparency was a hot topic at COP26: 

“In my experience at COP26, data transparency and accountability was a hot topic. There is a growing understanding that trusted, credible and accessible data is essential to provide accountability, track progress and inform effective action as we transition.”

Coal phase-down or phase-out?

Last minute amendments to the final COP26 text ended with ‘phase-down’ of coal from the previous ‘phase-out’. Despite much disappointment around this semantic change, Ember’s analysis provides a great summary of how COP26 really was the crucial nail in the coffin for coal: 

“For the very first time in a COP statement, the Glasgow Climate Pact calls on countries to ‘phase down unabated coal power’ – a momentous shift. Crucially, COP26 has seen the first coal phase-out commitments from emerging economies like Viet Nam, Indonesia and Ukraine, and we have seen multiple new financing mechanisms announced to help emerging economies retire coal plants and scale up clean power. Significantly, COP26 moved the goalposts of ambition from cancelling new coal plants to phasing out coal altogether. Now, all of the world’s top 10 coal countries have committed to net zero and three of these have made a new commitment to phase out coal power.  The momentum underscores the fact that an urgent transition from coal to clean electricity is the best choice for the economy, health and climate.” 

Matt Gray, co-CEO of TransitionZero, also echoed the fact that ‘coal is on notice’: 

“While it's disappointing the language on coal phase out was weakened in the final COP26 text, it is a milestone for it to be acknowledged at all. The signal is clear: coal is on notice. It is a remarkable sign of the times that coal-heavy countries such as Indonesia and Vietnam were able to sign up to this, something that would have been unbelievable even a few years ago. The pace of change is accelerating. To turn ambition into action, now finance and data will be the keys.”

Decarbonising transport 

Decarbonising transport was also high on the agenda at COP26, with the outcomes of Transport Day proving a step in the right direction. 33 countries signed a declaration pledging to phase-out sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2040, and in 2035 in leading markets. New AutoMotive provide a succinct response to this declaration in their blog: 

“While some big players are missing - Germany, China and much of the US - and it’s disappointing that car companies like VW refused to sign, this is a significant step forward in the road to fully electrified road transport. India’s decision to sign this declaration is huge in itself. Today’s declaration signifies big progress in the right direction, but there is much more still to do.”

Concluding remarks 

There were certainly a lot of positive achievements coming out of Glasgow this month, but also a lot of disappointments, particularly around climate justice and support for vulnerable communities. There is still much more to be done, and many of the incremental changes from COP26 are not enough. To summarise this, we would echo the poignant words of George Monbiot on the Paris Agreement of 2015: ‘By comparison to what it could have been, it’s a miracle. By comparison to what it should have been, it’s a disaster.' 

But that does not mean we should give up hope. In fact, we can’t. We must work together, sharing data, tools and resources, to accelerate climate action. We found Sir David Attenborough’s speech on this point particularly notable: “If working apart we are a force powerful enough to destabilise our planet, surely working together we are powerful enough to save it.” 

Some of you will feel frustrated and others will be energised by COP26. Either way, there's never been a better time to join in with climate action.

By Maisie Kemp, Marketing & Communications Assistant at Subak