Explosive growth in wind power means UK electric vehicles deliver real emissions reductions over ICE vehicles
This is a joint analysis between New Automotive and Ember, in association with funding from Subak
Summary
Don’t be misled by the naysayers. The UK’s 2030 phase-out of sales of new petrol & diesel cars will slash UK emissions thanks to the decline of coal-fired electricity generation and the growth of wind farms (1).
As importantly this will allow a build out of new locally-sourced infrastructure to create a cleaner UK grid, and result in lower motoring costs for the UK’s drivers.
Coal to Clean: The coal phase-out, the wind phase-in, and the electrification of transport
Electric vehicles deliver major air pollution benefits, as they do not emit any pollutants from their tail-pipe, in comparison to the CO2, NOx and soot emitted from petrol and diesel vehicles. Such pollutants have been shown by the RAC to be a major cause of thousands of premature deaths in the UK, costing the health system over £25bn pa: an issue that will only matter more post Covid19 (2).
But from a total carbon point of view, electric vehicles are only as clean as the grid that powers them.
It’s only when the grid becomes dominated by clean electricity that the emissions saving of an EV becomes something to crow about. For instance, UK power in 2020 has been 54% zero-carbon (when renewable(3) and nuclear generation are added together(4)).
Crucial to the cleanliness of EVs is the coal phase-out, now mandated to happen at the latest by 2024.
UK electricity in 2020 so far has been just 1.7% coal (5), meaning the UK grid has reduced its carbon intensity by 53% since 2013 (6).
Indeed in most of the National Grid scenarios the UK grid achieves zero emissions between 2030 and 2035, going negative thereafter due to carbon capture technologies (7).
The future - cleaner, smarter grid, and cleaner, cheaper cars
It’s crucial that growth in EVs proceeds in lockstep with growth in carbon-free grids. New Automotive forecasts that EV growth rates are quickly accelerating - and we can expect 11 million on the road by 2030 (8), alongside an ICE fleet of about 20m.
Those 11 million EVs will likely be powered by zero-carbon electricity, leaving the remaining ICE cars as the majority transport CO2 emitters in the UK.
The government renewing its commitment to 40GW of offshore wind capacity (9) by 2030 as part of its 10 point plan is going to be crucial in delivering this new electricity demand in a clean and effective form.
Source: New AutoMotive / National Grid, see note 5
Assuming the target of 40GW of total wind capacity is met, and new nuclear plants arrive on time, the UK grid could be largely powered by low carbon sources (wind, solar, hydro and nuclear) by 2030, just as new EV sales start to dominate total vehicle sales.
New technologies that allow maximal use of electricity when wind and solar dominate power generation will also help to reduce the emissions of the UK faster, and avoid renewable curtailment.
The addition of 11 million EVs to the grid by 2030 also creates the potential for new distributed grid technologies such as V2G, and smart services and software on top.
All of this will also require investment in electrical infrastructure and wind development - most likely requiring a majority of local UK-based jobs - over 60,000 for the wind capacity build-out alone according to the government’s newest estimate.
And there’s a final key benefit: renewable energy is cheap, particularly offshore wind, which is now contracted at cheaper than the wholesale price. This should keep electricity prices low, and make the difference ever more stark between filling a tank with petrol and charging your car batteries.
New Automotive calculate that EV running costs today via electricity vs petrol are about £700 pa or 70% cheaper for the average motorist - and may be far more - over £1,000 per year - depending on electricity provided on cheap renewable tariffs (10).
Coupled with the fact that EVs themselves are more at less price parity with conventional ICE cars (11), the UK motorist can now look to a cleaner, healthier and cheaper drive ahead: and know the electricity itself is rapidly moving toward zero emissions, protecting future generations from longer-term risks.
All of this is a big step toward 2050 Net Zero, but there is a long road still ahead. We both look forward to continued invention and innovation by the UK government and UK business to manage this opportunity, and accelerate the cleaning and re-wiring of the UK energy system for the next generations.
Endnotes
The UK generated 6.3% of its power in 2020 from burning biomass, which can’t be assumed to be carbon neutral (see our research The Burning Question), but we’ve included it in the figure as it is included in the ‘renewable’ category in the historic BEIS data we use later in this article.
Calculation: Total UK demand / (nuclear + renewable generation). Download the data here: https://ember-climate.org/data/european-electricity/
See Ember’s monthly European electricity generation data and analysis - available for free, here: https://ember-climate.org/data/european-electricity/
https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-hydrogen-required-to-meet-uk-net-zero-goal-says-national-grid
Based on NationalGrid estimates https://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/stories/journey-to-net-zero-stories/eso-future-energy-scenarios-next-30-years , and New AutoMotive calculations assuming 95% of passenger cars sold are EVs in 2030, https://newautomotive.org/the-index
It is in fact point 1 of the 10 point plan, https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-outlines-his-ten-point-plan-for-a-green-industrial-revolution-for-250000-jobs
For example see here - with cheap home charging deals, costs may be less than 10% of normal petrol costs, saving ver £1,000 per year as well as many other benefits, https://www.smarthomecharge.co.uk/guides/energy-tariffs-how-to-keep-ev-charging-costs-low?car=%2Fvehicles%2Fvolkswagen%2Fid.3%2F
